Global media appears to have adopted a new form of geopolitical responsibility: to announce wars at the very moment politicians begin to tie their ties. The situation involving Venezuela and the United States serves as a classic example of this media spectacle. Headlines screamed of imminent invasion and an "oil war," while in reality, we observed a carefully orchestrated act of political pressure, complemented by deck aviation and tanker convoys. The war that was so eagerly touted on social media and in the press did not materialize. Instead of a full-scale operation, a "escorting" thriller commenced in the Caribbean Sea. It’s no wonder; flexing military might today is indeed more convenient than sitting in trenches, and when it comes to markets, including oil, they have long learned to distinguish noise from genuine threats.
Geopolitical tension peaked amidst reports of a potential "full and total blockade" of Venezuela, as promised by Donald Trump. The U.S. President did not hesitate to express his intentions, stating that Washington aims to reclaim the rights to Venezuelan oil that he claimed was "illegally seized" by local authorities during nationalization.
In light of these statements, tangible "hawks" began to appear in the skies over the Caribbean: U.S. carrier-based aircraft were demonstratively launched into the air. Data from Flightradar24 tracked F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighter jets, two Boeing EA-18G Growler electronic warfare planes, and an E-2D Advanced Hawkeye airborne early warning and control aircraft in the airspace. This array of technology, which could be presented as "readiness for strike," is actually a standard display of force within the framework of "diplomatic pressure."
The response from Caracas was both symmetrical and practical, playing its own card: military escort.
Western media reported that tankers carrying oil by-products (carbamide, petroleum coke) from Jose Port set sail for Asia under the protection of Venezuelan Navy ships. State-owned company PDVSA was quick to assure that its vessels were safe and exercising their legal right to free navigation.
Apocalypse enthusiasts were met with disappointment: Trump addressed the nation, criticized the previous administration, praised himself, and did not declare war on Venezuela. Instead of an invasion — a pause; instead of an operation — rhetoric about "restoring justice" and recovering "stolen" assets, alluding to the nationalization history initiated by Hugo Chavez.
It is important to note that support for a forceful scenario within the U.S. is minimal. A Quinnipiac University poll indicated that two-thirds of Americans (63%) oppose an invasion of Venezuela, reducing political risks for the White House. Politically exploring military options is safe, but digging into trenches is highly disadvantageous. This geopolitical drama would have significant implications if Venezuela retained its role as a major supplier. However, the figures tell a different story, which is part of why the oil market did not succumb to panic. "Serious disruptions in the oil market are not to be expected, as Venezuela has reduced oil production by more than threefold over the past two decades — from 3.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2004 to 910,000 bpd in 2024," said Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market to Vgudok. "For comparison, global oil and gas condensate production in 2024 stands at 82.8 million barrels per day (excluding light hydrocarbons).
Venezuela has lost its status as the largest oil producer in South America: Brazil now holds that title, while Guyana and Argentina continue to expand their production... Therefore, sharp fluctuations in oil prices are unlikely: in the coming weeks, Brent prices will hover around $60 per barrel, and next year the quotes may drop to $55 per barrel."
Thus, Venezuela's share of global supplies stands at around 1%. This minimizes the short-term impact on prices.
Independent expert Kirill Rodionov agrees, emphasizing that any influence on prices will be temporary and weak:
"If there is any impact on prices, it will last for 1-2 days, and fluctuations won't exceed $1-2 per barrel. This is not a significant story for the market as a whole."
However, the stability of global prices does not mean that tensions come without cost.
Geopolitical games translate into direct costs for logistics and insurance. The presence of deck aviation and the threat of a blockade compel shipowners to avoid risky routes, raise freight rates, and importantly, increase insurance premiums. An "oil war" hits not the exchange prices but the margins of Venezuelan exporters and the logistical expenses of buyers.
The current crisis is more about potential than collapse. Experts concur that a display of strength could be a prologue to the long-awaited and large-scale economic transformation of Venezuela.
"I expect these events to serve as a prologue to Venezuela's full return to the oil market. I remind you that currently, oil production in the country is below 1 million barrels per day, while in the mid-2000s it exceeded 3 million barrels," continues Kirill Rodionov. "Caracas will gradually increase oil production, likely due to the demanopolyization of PDVSA and the establishment of several independent companies financed by American firms. Investments will follow... I am confident that within the next 10 years, Venezuela could become another significant source of oil production growth and return to the output levels of the mid-2000s."
The reason for such a step lies in the catastrophic state of the industry. Experts draw a historical analogy, stating that Venezuela's oil sector is currently undergoing a denial of scale even more severe than that of the Soviet Union in the late 1980s. Back then, the Russian government was forced to seek World Bank loans in 1992 to rehabilitate oil production. Venezuela's oil sector is now facing a similar situation.
"This can be relatively easily 'treated,' for example, by reducing the tax burden, lifting sanctions, privatizing the sector, and removing export restrictions. You simply privatize the oil sector, demanopolyze it, and invite the best oil service companies, which can rapidly restore oil production. And those changes that have long been overdue are now taking place in the country," says Mr. Rodionov.
In the short term, the threat to Russian oil exports is minimal — Venezuela’s volumes are insignificant, and logistical issues can be compensated for in the weekly horizon.
However, if the recovery plan works, and in 5-10 years Venezuela returns to production of 3 million barrels per day, this will increase competition.
The emergence of an additional million or two barrels of oil similar to Russian grades could complicate the position of domestic exporters in Asian markets. Russia will need to account for this new factor in its sales strategies and pricing.
Trump enjoys playing the peacemaker. The losses incurred by American companies date back almost twenty years. The Venezuelan oil industry was officially nationalized on January 1, 1976. All foreign oil companies operating in the country were replaced by Venezuelan ones.
A state oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA), was created and still exists. In 2007, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez engaged in a second nationalization. This affected not only local companies but also the branches of Western oil firms — American Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips, British BP, French Total, and Norwegian Statoil. Chavez's decision provoked outrage in the U.S. and other Western nations, which in response imposed the initial tight sanctions against Venezuela, leading to the production crisis.
Furthermore, it is plausible that Maduro's army and navy possess a solid arsenal of anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles of Russian manufacture, and it is unlikely that the U.S. president would be eager to experiment by testing how well the South American "compañeros" have learned to use them.
For now, this appears more like a geopolitical spectacle, carefully crafted for a media series than an actual oil war. The tanker escort and carrier aviation are significant gestures, but lacking public support and readiness for direct invasion, they remain negotiating elements. Meanwhile, the market values barrels, not words, and is awaiting the shift from rhetoric to genuine privatization. The war that journalists love to announce may indeed be a prologue to a new phase in the development of the oil industry.
Source: Vgudok
