The situation might drastically change in July. To increase fuel supply in the domestic market, the list of fuel producers eligible for budget subsidies has been expanded. Additionally, importers of gasoline into Russia will also qualify for these subsidies. However, an increase in tax revenues from the oil and gas sector is not expected. In fact, they are likely to decrease.
Taxes are paid based on the results of the previous month; thus, the June payments correspond to May’s figures, while July payments will be for June. The price of Russian Urals oil, which is used in fiscal calculations, fell from $94.87 per barrel in April to $86.52 in May and down to $63.52 in June. Taxes are paid in rubles based on the average exchange rate against the dollar for the month. The volume of oil production is also significant, remaining roughly stable since the beginning of the year, according to OPEC: 9.02 million barrels per day in April and 9.01 million barrels per day in May. June statistics are not yet available, but it is likely that production may decline further.
In June, the revenue from the main industry tax on mineral extraction (MET) decreased by 45.6 billion rubles month-on-month. In July, further declines are likely due to the drop in the price of Russian oil in June, which may be slightly offset by a modest weakening of the ruble against the dollar (by 54 kopecks). Here, it becomes crucial to assess how budget subsidies for oil companies might increase, which also depend on oil prices, petroleum products, and the ruble exchange rate.
There are two types of payouts: the already mentioned reverse excise tax and the damping mechanism (compensation from the budget to oil companies for part of the difference between domestic fuel prices and export prices). Large oil refineries could receive these payments provided they entered into investment agreements with the state concerning production modernization, ensuring the output of fuel of at least "Euro-5" class, and fulfilling obligations to deliver a defined volume to the domestic market. The amount paid through the reverse excise tax is tied to the volume of processed oil at these refineries. The quality requirements for fuel to qualify for the reverse excise tax and damping have now been reduced, allowing payments to those producing it by blending straight-run gasoline (the primary product of oil refining) with other components. This leads to an increase in the sulfur content of gasoline and reduces its storage life.
Additional payments from the budget should stimulate oil companies to increase fuel output.As explained in an interview with "RG," Konstantin Simonov, head of the National Energy Security Fund, this adjustment aims to allow oil companies to rapidly boost gasoline production, albeit at a lower quality, during periods of shortage without losing the reverse excise tax payments. The expert underscores that the requirements for modernizing production have not been lifted – they remain a final goal for Russian refineries.
To increase fuel supply, importers will now also be eligible for the damping mechanism. This decision will prevent a significant spike in domestic gasoline and diesel prices, making such imports profitable for intermediaries. Previously, only Russian and Belarusian refineries were eligible for damping. Now it extends to imported gasoline: a coefficient of 0.9 has been established for fuel from EAEU countries starting June 1, 2026, while a separate formula will be introduced for imports from other countries based on import parity.
According to Daniil Tyun, CEO of "DA-Consulting," while the budget's financial impact may be noticeable, it is unlikely to be catastrophic in the first month. Using May's parameters, each additional 100,000 tons of supported fuel may cost the budget approximately 2.5-2.7 billion rubles. If mixing and importing manages to add 500,000 tons monthly, that could result in an additional burden of 12-14 billion rubles. Should the volume reach 1 million tons, it could mean 25-30 billion rubles monthly.
A similar opinion was expressed by Sergey Frolov, managing partner of NEFT Research, albeit with reservations. Payments to importers and fuel depots (producing gasoline through blending) are unlikely to significantly increase the lost budget income, assuming these emergency measures do not extend beyond 3-4 months, he believes.
Additionally, as noted by Simonov, payments tied to the excise tax are connected to the price of our oil, while the damping mechanism is linked to the export price of oil products. Consequently, these payments will decrease alongside oil and gas revenues. Overall, these payments should not become a significant challenge for budget revenues. The main goal is to ensure they act as a stimulus for oil companies to ramp up production, according to the expert.
Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, mentions that the size of the payouts will be influenced by the current corrections in the oil market, which reflect the dynamics of external prices for petroleum products. Therefore, the damping payouts for fuel producers are unlikely to exceed 200 billion rubles (210.6 billion rubles in June). Concerning payments to importers, the relatively low supply volumes will act as a constraining factor.
Tyun believes that the adopted measures can work without causing severe detriment to the treasury only as a short-term crisis scheme – for a few months, while refineries recover and the seasonal fuel shortage resolves. If Urals oil remains above $60-65 per barrel, and imports and blending remain targeted, the budget can absorb an additional 10-30 billion rubles per month. However, if oil prices drop below $55-60, with a strong ruble and damping remaining above 200 billion rubles monthly, the mechanism could quickly consume oil and gas revenues. The primary risk is that the measures taken so far address symptoms rather than causes. The underlying issue is the decline in fuel output due to refinery challenges. In such a scenario, the damping mechanism and reverse excise tax could stabilize prices and stimulate supplies, but they cannot replace physical processing, emphasizes the expert.
Source: RG.RU
