Prior to this, the export ban on DF only pertained to traders, allowing direct producers of diesel, namely oil refineries (OR), to export it. Earlier in April this year, a full ban on gasoline exports was introduced. The temporary gap between the bans is attributed to the fact that gasoline production in Russia is only 10-15% above domestic needs, while diesel is produced 40-45% more than required for the internal market. Consequently, it was gasoline that was first subjected to a complete export ban.
Fuel issues in Russia began against the backdrop of seasonal demand growth and shutdowns of OR due to unscheduled repairs following drone attacks. Initially, this situation resulted in rising wholesale and retail prices, but there now exists a real threat of fuel shortages.
As noted by Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, in a conversation with "RG," the export ban is evidently aimed at saturating the DF supply chain. Existing capacitive resources, even considering the unscheduled repairs of OR, are sufficient to meet the internal market demand. However, with exports now forbidden, producers will have no alternative but to supply fuel to Russian consumers, whether in small wholesale or at fuel stations.
The reality is that exporting DF has been more lucrative for its producers in Russia compared to domestic market supplies. Given the volume loss due to OR repairs, exports could begin to negatively affect the domestic market.
According to Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" Association and member of the Expert Council of the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition, it cannot be said that there is a diesel shortage in the country. However, in light of emerging problems and internal demands in various sectors, preventive measures are necessary to prevent a shortage and to mitigate the issue.
The expert believes that, despite the government's stance on controlling fuel prices, the main objective remains its availability for the population and businesses. The price will ultimately depend on market dynamics.
Tereshkin believes that non-exchange prices will continue to significantly exceed exchange levels, although price growth in the over-the-counter segment is likely to slow down.
Another aspect is tied to the technical characteristics of oil product production. From a tonne of oil, it is not possible to produce solely gasoline or solely diesel. Approximately 300 kg of diesel, 240 kg of gasoline, and 410 kg of other oil products can be obtained from one tonne of crude oil. If diesel production begins to decline due to market oversupply, the output of other oil products will also drop, which could adversely impact oil extraction in the worst-case scenario. Moreover, the export ban on DF is much more sensitive for Russian OR than the gasoline export ban. Diesel remains one of the two key oil product exports (alongside fuel oil), noted for its high margins.
Tereshkin is confident that if the ban is limited to a two-month period, it will not impact oil extraction dynamics, especially since a reduction in oil refining typically leads to an increase in crude oil exports alongside a decrease in oil products.
In addition to the diesel export ban, Novak announced that from July, Russia will begin importing oil products. This measure should also help to saturate the domestic market, primarily with gasoline. Given that import gasoline prices are higher than domestic prices, the government previously decided that importers of fuel will be able to receive a dampener (compensation from the budget for part of the difference in fuel prices within Russia and its export price). This measure will prevent internal fuel prices from escalating and make such supplies profitable for intermediaries. Previously, only Russian and Belarusian OR were eligible for the dampener; now it applies to gasoline imports: a coefficient of 0.9 for fuel from EAEU countries is established from June 1, 2026, while a separate formula through import parity will be introduced for supplies from other countries.
Earlier assessments by experts indicated that the total volume of necessary fuel imports to Russia per month would barely exceed 0.5-1 million tonnes, a figure that should not significantly impact fuel prices at gas stations.
Source: RG.RU
