The federal budget for January recorded 393.3 billion rubles in oil and gas revenues (OGR), falling short by 17.4 billion rubles from the projected figure, as reported by the Ministry of Finance on February 4. Compared to January of the previous year, this figure has halved (when OGR amounted to 789.1 billion rubles), and in relation to December 2025, it has dropped by 12.1% (447.8 billion rubles). Furthermore, the oil and gas revenues for January marked the worst outcome in the last five and a half years, the last time they were lower was in July 2020 (340 billion rubles). In February, the Ministry forecasts a further decline in additional OGR by 209.4 billion rubles. From February 6 to March 5, the Ministry of Finance plans to sell foreign currency and gold for a total of 226.8 billion rubles (11.9 billion rubles daily), according to the announcement.

In January, the average monthly price of Urals oil, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, was $40.95 per barrel. Throughout last year, this price steadily decreased, falling from $67.66 per barrel in January to $39.1 per barrel in December. The ministry noted a slight increase in June and July ($59.84 and $60.37 per barrel, respectively), but the negative trend resumed thereafter. According to the Ministry's September forecast, the average annual price of Urals oil this year is expected to be $59 per barrel.

However, experts believe that the ministry's expectations are somewhat overestimated, reported Vedomosti on February 2. The average annual price of Urals oil may settle at around $50 per barrel due to persistently low global prices (specifically, the average annual price of Brent hovering around $60–63 per barrel) along with a reduction in the discounts on Russian export oil to levels observed at the beginning of 2025—down to $8–10, analysts from ACRA stated in their macroeconomic forecast. As a result, the federal budget could potentially miss out on 0.5–0.7% of GDP in revenues compared to the current plan, with the budget deficit estimated to be 2.2–2.7% of GDP (the Ministry's plan for this year sets the deficit at 1.6% of GDP), as indicated in the report. The latest macroeconomic survey from the Bank of Russia confirms ACRA's analysts' conclusions—respondents anticipate an average annual price for Urals oil at $50 per barrel (compared to $54 per barrel in December).

Starting this year, the cutoff price for oil according to the budget rule will begin to gradually decline by $1 per year, reaching $55 per barrel by 2030. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov noted in September that the existing cutoff threshold of $60 per barrel no longer "meets the challenges of the times." Under the budget rule, additional income exceeding the established oil price threshold is allocated for the purchase of foreign currency and gold for subsequent accumulation in the National Wealth Fund (NWF). Conversely, if revenues fall below the planned figures, sales will occur in the volume necessary to cover the shortfall.

Vedomosti sent a request to a representative of the Ministry of Finance.

The consistent reduction in the share of oil and gas revenues reflects deeper structural changes in the economy and the country's budget system, noted Elena Lebedinskaya, Director of the Department of Revenues at the Ministry of Finance, in comments published by the ministry's press service on February 4. "As a result, the federal budget becomes less sensitive to fluctuations in global commodity prices than it was ten years ago, which enhances its resilience in conditions of external instability," she concluded. According to the federal budget law for 2026–2028, OGR for the current year is projected at 8.9 trillion rubles (or 22% of all planned budget revenues).

Reasons for the Decline
The dynamics of oil prices, which depend on international benchmarks and discounts on Russian oil prices, are crucial for OGR, reminds Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market. At the end of last year, the discount of Urals to Brent exceeded $20 per barrel, which is why the January figure became the lowest in the last five and a half years. The key factor behind the increase in the discount is the tightening of U.S. sanctions against Russian oil companies, which heightened risks for importers of Russian oil, according to the expert.

However, the market gradually adapts to new rounds of restrictions, believes Tereshkin. For instance, in early 2023, shortly after the EU embargo on importing oil from Russia took effect, the Urals discount to Brent prices surpassed $25 per barrel, but subsequently returned to the range of $10–12 per barrel, he notes. The expert expects a similar scenario to unfold this year, provided that the U.S. does not introduce new restrictions. Overall, 2026 could prove to be even more challenging for oil and gas revenues than the previous year, according to Tereshkin. The high discount could be offset by increasing oil production and exports in the country, but OPEC+ is unlikely to undertake drastic measures given that Brent prices are already close to the $60 per barrel mark, he states.

Falling oil prices and a high discount for Urals oil, reaching around $25 per barrel, negatively impact the financial performance of Russian oil companies, agrees investment strategist Sergey Suverov from the management company Aricapital. The situation is particularly dire for smaller enterprises with high extraction and export costs, he notes. Larger companies with lower production costs weather the "perfect storm" more easily, he points out. In February, the situation with oil and gas revenues is expected to improve slightly, according to Suverov. Brent prices have risen to $70 per barrel, and the ruble exchange rate may soon begin to decline, he clarifies. According to Rosstat data for the first ten months of last year, the share of loss-making organizations among oil and gas extraction companies slightly decreased to 47.5% from 48.1% in the January-September period.

Several factors influence oil and gas revenues simultaneously: widening spreads, unstable oil and gas export flows (with demand among major buyers only predictable in relation to China), attacks on shipping, as well as a negative long-term outlook for the commodity market in the context of an extremely strong ruble, explains economist and author of the Telegram channel Spydell Finance Pavel Ryabov.

Under the current conditions, oil and gas revenues by the end of the year will not exceed 6 trillion rubles against a forecast of 9 trillion rubles, with the strongest blow being dealt by the strengthened ruble.

Source: Vedomosti