Petrol Kept in Country: Will the Export Ban Lower Prices?

From April 2 to July 31, a ban on the export of gasoline has been implemented in Russia for all market participants. Prices for gasoline, which had been rising since the beginning of the year, immediately began to decline, even though its production in the country is decreasing and demand is increasing with the arrival of spring. The rise in global oil and petroleum product prices, including gasoline, due to the war in the Middle East, on one hand, encourages producers to sell gasoline on external markets. On the other hand, these high global prices allow oil producers to receive significant compensations from the government. Forbes investigated why gasoline prices increased, the reasons for the export ban, its duration, and its effects on the business of Russian producers. On April 2, the Russian government announced a complete ban on the export of gasoline until July 31, 2026. "The decision was made to maintain a stable situation in the domestic fuel market during the period of high seasonal demand and agricultural fieldwork, as well as in connection with the rise in global oil prices due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East," the government statement said. The restriction does not apply to supplies made under international intergovernmental agreements, as noted in the decree. In 2025, a full ban on gasoline exports was introduced on August 31 due to a sharp rise in wholesale and retail prices and lasted until the end of February 2026. The ban was lifted due to a decrease in prices, said Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of the petroleum marketplace Open Oil Market. Although prices for gasoline began to rise on January 12, 2026, the first day trading started on the St. Petersburg Exchange that year, they were still lower than in August when the ban was imposed. On February 27, before the embargo was lifted, the price of AI-92 rose to 59,263 rubles per ton, down 13.3% from August 29, the last trading day before the export ban when the price was 68,435 rubles per ton. AI-95 dropped even further—by 20.7%, to 62,677 rubles per ton from 79,054. Russia's customs statistics have been closed since 2022. According to the latest available data, in 2021, the country exported 4.4 million tons of automotive gasoline, which is 24.5% less than in 2020. The total production volume in 2021 was 40.8 million tons. Data on gasoline production was closed by Rosstat in 2024. Vice-Premier Alexander Novak estimated the volume for 2024 at 44.1 million tons and expected it to be maintained or slightly increased in 2025. Forbes sent inquiries to the largest Russian oil companies—Rosneft, Lukoil, Surgutneftegas, and Gazprom Neft—regarding whether they had ceased gasoline exports, but had not received a response from them by the time of publication. The instruction to impose a complete ban on gasoline exports was given on March 27 by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak after a meeting with representatives of oil companies and relevant agencies. The head of Gazprom Neft, Alexander Dyukov, proposed a complete ban on gasoline exports for two to three months the day before the meeting, stating that this measure was necessary to prevent fuel from being drained from the Russian market to external ones where prices are significantly higher.

How Gasoline Prices Increased

Gasoline prices, which had been rising since the start of the year, began to fall on March 25, presumably following the first reports that authorities were discussing the introduction of the embargo. On March 24, prices for AI-92 gasoline peaked, rising by 25% since the beginning of the year to reach 68,504 rubles per ton. AI-95 rose even more steeply—by 31%, reaching 77,483 rubles per ton. By April 2, AI-92 was trading at 65,196 rubles per ton, down 4.8% from its peak, while AI-95 was priced at 70,031 rubles per ton, down 3.4%. On March 19, a week before Novak's meeting with oil producers, Anton Rubtsov, director of the oil and gas complex department at the Ministry of Energy, claimed that gasoline reserves in the country amounted to 2 million tons, which is more than a year ago. He also noted that the ministry expected an increase in oil refining volumes at refineries. However, prices continued to rise. The increase was influenced by a rise in excise taxes by 5.1% and an increase in VAT from 20% to 22% effective January 1, 2026, said Maxim Shevyrenkov, head of the raw materials market analysis center at the Institute for Energy and Finance (IEF). Additional price increases were caused by scheduled repairs at major oil refineries and attacks on infrastructure, which forced companies to reduce refining, he noted. The conflict in the Middle East also contributed, leading to a rise in both global oil and petroleum product prices. The surge in stock market gasoline prices was linked to oil companies' attempts to recoup losses, according to Tereshkin from Open Oil Market. Payments to oil producers from the so-called damping mechanism in January 2026 amounted to 16.9 billion rubles, down 90% compared to January 2025 when they reached 156.4 billion rubles. In February 2026, oil companies paid 18.8 billion rubles to the budget. The damping mechanism is paid to oil companies from the budget as compensation for supplying fuel to the domestic market at prices below export levels. If, however, the export cost of fuel, calculated by the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS), is lower than domestic prices, oil companies must pay this difference back to the budget. Tereshkin points out that the formula for calculating payments from the damping mechanism is quite complex and, in addition to the difference between the calculated export and domestic prices, depends on other special coefficients, such as the cost of gasoline in Rotterdam, average transshipment costs in Russian ports, and sea transportation expenses, as well as the price of Brent crude oil. According to Tereshkin, informal agreements between fuel producers and regulators may also have played a role in pushing prices up, as he speculates that such agreements could have instructed oil producers to restrain price growth at the end of the previous year. This is indirectly supported by the fact that prices were dropping at the end of 2025. "Price restraint was meant to ensure the regulators had relatively decent inflation figures for 2025, but it resulted in a price spike at the beginning of 2026," he notes. Yearly inflation in Russia accelerated to 6% in January from 5.6% in December and remained high at 5.9% in February.

Why a Ban is Necessary

The decision to impose a ban on gasoline exports was made considering two factors, says investment strategist Sergey Suverov from the management company 'Aricapital'. First, with the onset of spring, gasoline demand increases, as significantly more private vehicles are used compared to winter. At the same time, due to drone strikes on oil refineries and energy infrastructure, production is declining. By imposing restrictions, the government attempted to prevent a potential deficit in the domestic market. However, Suverov believes prices will continue to rise due to inflation. "Saturation of the internal market could contribute to a certain slowdown in growth," he cautions. The export ban will have little effect on increasing the physical supply in the domestic market, says Shevyrenkov from IEF. He notes that Russia exports a relatively small volume of gasoline, primarily through intergovernmental agreements, mainly with Mongolia and the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, which will not be affected by the ban. He reminds that data on gasoline export volumes and their directions are classified. However, according to his estimates, aside from supplies under intergovernmental agreements, Russia could export approximately 100,000 tons of gasoline per month while internal consumption exceeds 3 million tons a month. At the same time, the expert believes that the ban will limit the influence of high global gasoline prices on the Russian market, as producers will lose an attractive export alternative. Since global oil prices remained high throughout March due to the war in the Middle East, ranging from $80 to $110 per barrel, and damping payments are formed with a one-month lag, producers can expect significant payments already in April, says Tereshkin from Open Oil Market. He calculated that this month, oil producers could receive more than 200 billion rubles from the budget. This will likely slow down the price increase on the stock exchange in April and May. However, due to the seasonal increase in demand, prices are expected to rise despite the export ban, Tereshkin does not rule out. "Much will depend on whether regulators will reconsider the damping formula to ensure Russian oil producers receive high subsidies if global petroleum product prices start to decline," Tereshkin states. In October 2025, Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing oil companies to receive guaranteed compensations. However, its effectiveness expires on May 1, 2026, and a decision must be made on how the compensation payment scheme will work going forward. Despite the high damping payments, producers still faced the temptation to sell certain batches of gasoline abroad due to high global prices, says Shevyrenkov from IEF. Suverov from Aricapital believes that companies, even with significant compensations, might continue exporting gasoline to avoid losing foreign customers and earning foreign currency, which they could use for buying equipment or spare parts. If the situation with attacks on refineries and port infrastructure does not improve by the end of the ban, it seems the embargo may have to be extended, believes Suverov. Shevyrenkov from IEF also allows for an extension of the embargo in the case of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East. Source: Forbes