A complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz lasting more than five weeks could lead to an increase in Brent crude oil prices to $150 per barrel or higher. This estimate is presented by analysts from consulting firm B1 (formerly EY in Russia) in their report. The authors of the report outline three possible scenarios for the development of the conflict in the Middle East: "Prolonged Escalation," "Localization," and "Complete Blockade." According to the first scenario, maintaining the current situation of limited traffic and regular attacks on vessels for several months would result in a reduction of oil production in Gulf countries by 10 million barrels per day by February 2026, keeping oil prices above $100 per barrel. In the "Localization" scenario, a restoration of traffic within several weeks and monitoring of the strait by the military forces of interested countries would maintain oil prices at levels not exceeding $100 per barrel. The third scenario envisions a complete cessation of maritime activities in the strait, including the passage of Iranian vessels. This would lead to a significantly greater decrease in oil production in the Middle East (B1 does not provide a specific forecast) and a substantial oil deficit in the Asia-Pacific region, as noted by the analysts. The timeframe indicated in the report for the blockade's impact on oil prices is five weeks, as a tanker carrying oil from the Persian Gulf takes up to 2.5 weeks to reach buyers in East and Southeast Asia, explained Alexey Lavrukhin, head of B1's analytical center, to Vedomosti. After five weeks, the halt in supplies would become evident, prompting active withdrawal of oil from reserves and a rapid search for new suppliers, he noted. According to B1’s estimates, between 2023 and 2025, 20-25% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas exports passed through the Strait of Hormuz, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman in the Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, alternative routes—such as the East-West pipelines in Saudi Arabia (capacity of 5-7 million barrels per day), Habshan-Fujairah in the UAE (1.5-1.8 million barrels per day), and the Kirkuk-Jayhan route in Iraq and Turkey (1.6 million barrels per day)—can only export volumes that account for 50% of what is supplied through the Strait of Hormuz. After the onset of the armed conflict between the US and Israel with Iran, the Strait of Hormuz was blockaded by Iranian military forces in March. However, according to vessel tracking system MarineTraffic, some ships managed to navigate through it. Iran does not obstruct vessels from friendly countries, such as China, but most exporters avoid this route due to high risks, the B1 report states. Violations of maritime navigation in the Persian Gulf and mutual attacks on infrastructure by conflict participants led to a significant reduction in oil production in the region. According to Vedomosti's calculations based on OPEC data, oil production in Gulf countries dropped by 33%, or 8 million barrels per day, in March 2026 compared to February of the same year, down to 16.5 million barrels per day. The parties announced a two-week ceasefire on April 8, with Iran agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Between April 11-12, in Islamabad and with the mediation of Pakistan, the first round of US-Iranian negotiations took place, which did not yield results. On April 12, US President Donald Trump stated that the US would itself block the strait to prevent Iranian vessels and those that have paid Iran for transit from passing through. The blockade began on April 13. On April 18, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in response to the US blockade. The second round of US-Iranian negotiations scheduled for April 21 has yet to occur. At the same time, Trump unilaterally extended the ceasefire indefinitely while maintaining the maritime blockade of the strait. This blockade is not complete—some vessels, including Iranian ones, continue to transit the Strait of Hormuz. According to Kpler, cited by CNN, from April 24 to 27, 17 vessels, including four tankers, passed through the strait. Bloomberg reported that at the beginning of this week, vessel movement through the strait had almost completely halted. Brent crude prices have remained around $100 per barrel since mid-March 2026. According to the ICE exchange, on April 27, June futures for Brent oil were priced at $108 per barrel. Prior to the start of the US and Israel's attacks on Iran on February 27, oil prices were at $72.5 per barrel. Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, considers a rise in oil prices to $150 per barrel in 2026 to be an unrealistic scenario. He believes that supply disruptions from the Middle East will be mitigated by strategic reserves from China and other countries, resulting in an average Brent oil price this year not exceeding $80 per barrel. Senior analyst at the investment bank Sinar, Alexey Kokin, and analyst at Finam Group, Nikolay Dudchenko, believe that the reduction in oil production in Gulf countries by 10 million barrels per day will occur as early as April. According to Dmitry Kasatkin, a partner at Kasatkin Consulting, the reduction in production by the end of this month will amount to 9.1 million barrels per day. In the case of a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the decline could reach 10-12 million barrels per day, according to the expert. Dudchenko speculates that the figure could reach 14 million barrels per day even without a complete blockade of the strait. In these conditions, oil prices could rise to $110-120 per barrel, Kokin predicts. Dudchenko believes that if the current situation continues, prices could reach $120-130 per barrel, and could rise to $150 per barrel in the event of shipping disruptions in the Red Sea. Kasatkin forecasts that if the blockade of the strait persists, prices could hit $145-155 per barrel, and if the situation escalates, with attacks on oil infrastructure, oil prices could reach $200-215 per barrel. The formation of an oil deficit in the market is happening gradually, and the deficit is already becoming noticeable in some Asian countries, notes Kasatkin. According to the expert, Pakistan is in the most critical situation (15 days of raw material reserves, 85% dependence on supply through the Strait of Hormuz) and Bangladesh (12 days), while India (30 days) and Taiwan (45 days) are in the "zone of increased risk." Kokin believes that the most serious problems, aside from Pakistan and Bangladesh, could arise for Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka. Source: Vedomosti