Since the end of last year, according to Rosstat, retail prices for gasoline have increased by 1.2%, while diesel fuel (DF) has risen by 1.3%. According to the Moscow Fuel Association (MTA), the price increase at gas stations in the capital was even more pronounced: during the same period, prices for all types of fuel rose by approximately 1.8% (by more than one ruble).

The reasons for the price hike are not difficult to identify, as it was anticipated. Starting from 2026, excise taxes on gasoline and DF have increased by 5.1%, accounting for around 20% of the final price. Additionally, VAT has risen by 2%, which, as we know, is collected in Russia with every product sale. It’s also important to note that the fuel supply chain rarely involves just one seller and one buyer.

Meanwhile, the wholesale sector, particularly on the exchange, remains relatively calm. Quotes have dropped from their peaks in October and are currently at levels seen in the spring of last year. Therefore, we are now interested in whether retail prices have fully retraced the rise in tax burden and what their trajectory will be moving forward.

As explained by Yuri Stankevich, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Energy, the goal of maintaining retail price dynamics for gasoline and diesel within a corridor defined by inflation parameters remains unchanged. "I do not see any preconditions for sharp spikes in prices at this time," he told "RG".

However, Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chair of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" Association and member of the Expert Council of the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition, believes that the fiscal pressure has only been partially accounted for. The VAT increase affects not only fuel but also all services, including transportation. The volumes under new tariffs with the new VAT are just starting to be delivered, indicating that there is still potential for growth. The question is what we mean by stabilization. Under current conditions, we are programmed for a steadily rising price for gasoline and DF within the framework of inflation.

According to Sergey Frolov, managing partner at NEFT Research, currently, no more than 50% of the increase in tax burden has been transferred to retail prices. A gradual rise is expected to continue until the start of the high season, after which any increases will be driven by demand, the magnitude of which will depend on the balance of supply and demand.

Additionally, Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, notes that the price rise at gas stations at the beginning of the year was influenced not only by the indexing of fuel excises but also by retail networks' efforts to recover losses incurred in late November - December 2025, when gasoline prices dropped continuously for more than a month and a half.

The fuel market has not fully offset the increase in tax burden yet.
Tereshkin clarifies that while the increase of VAT to 22% is significant, it is not a determining factor for the fuel market. The payments from the damper (compensation to oil producers from the budget for supplying fuel to the domestic market at prices below export levels) will play a much larger role. There are currently no preconditions for increasing these payments, as subsidies are tied to external (export) prices for petroleum products, which are declining in tandem with falling oil prices. For instance, the price of the export alternative of AI-92 has dropped from RUB 69,166 per ton in November 2025 to RUB 57,471 per ton in December 2025 (this figure is calculated by regulators when assessing damper payments). As a result, subsidies for fuel producers may reach a multi-year low by early 2026.

The importance of damper payments for companies can be assessed based on the events of the 2023 fuel crisis. At that time, an attempt to halve these payments led to an uncontrolled rise in gas station prices. Data for 2024 show that the share of damper payments in "Gazprom Neft's" revenue was 44%. In 2024, companies received RUB 1.8 trillion from the budget as damper support. Payments decreased in 2025 and are unlikely to exceed RUB 1 trillion (December statistics are not yet available).

Media reports indicate that there is currently an initiative being considered for direct fuel sales to small wholesale buyers (gas stations, agricultural producers, and industrial consumers) to reduce the number of fuel resales and streamline logistics.

Stankevich notes that the FAS (Federal Antimonopoly Service) and the St. Petersburg Exchange are working to improve the rules for public fuel trading, reducing the number of intermediaries in transactions and introducing sales standards in the small wholesale segment. "The exchange mechanisms are currently not ideal, considering, among other factors, that the price indicators for crude oil, which we operate with, are established on foreign platforms. However, abandoning exchange trading would be a significant step backward, leaving us without an alternative. There is simply no other mediator that can provide an objective picture concerning price formation based on supply and demand."

From Frolov's perspective, this will be undeniably beneficial for independent gas stations (more than half of gas stations in Russia), as an additional procurement channel will open up. However, he believes that this will not significantly impact retail prices or the wholesale exchange segment.

Gusev argues that as long as the exchange cannot reduce the cost of access to its services for end fuel consumers, the abandonment of traders (resellers) remains unrealistic.

Tereshkin shares a similar view. The idea of direct sales to wholesalers is unlikely to have much impact; a much more effective solution would be to increase the standards for exchange sales of gasoline and diesel, he points out. But the important aspect is the fact that new ideas are being sought in a situation where industry regulation year after year revolves around damper payments and export restrictions. Regulators are looking for a way to reduce prices "off-exchange," so we are sure to see more initiatives in the coming months, the expert is convinced.

Source: RG.RU