There are several arguments that suggest this information is credible. Experts surveyed by "RG" lean toward the belief that the ban on gasoline exports for producers will be lifted, likely effective from February 1. Currently, the ban remains in place until March 1. A full export ban on gasoline was instituted in Russia on August 31, 2025, against the backdrop of a sharp rise in wholesale and retail fuel prices. Previously, a ban on gasoline exports for traders was in effect since July, but as this measure did not yield the desired results, it was tightened.
Favoring the lifting of the full ban is the existing situation regarding tax payments from oil companies. For December, when tax payments are made in January (with the structure being published by the Ministry of Finance only in February), oil producers may face a negative damper.
A damper is a budget compensation paid to oil companies for supplying fuel to the domestic market at prices below export levels. The amount of these payments is calculated based on the difference between the export price of the fuel and the indicative domestic price established by law. A negative damper arises when the export price of fuel drops below indicative prices. In this situation, nominally, it is considered that domestic gasoline supplies become more profitable than exports. Consequently, oil producers must pay the budget the difference between the export and indicative prices.
According to estimates by Reuters, oil companies owe about 13 billion rubles to the budget for the damper in December. While this amount is not significant for oil producers, it is important to note that damper payments constituted a considerable portion of large oil companies' revenues in 2024 and 2025, sometimes reaching 30-40%. Now, not only will they not receive these payments, but they also will have to pay into the budget. The full ban on gasoline exports was introduced due to rising wholesale and retail prices of gasoline at the end of last summer.
In the meantime, it would be hard to say that all is calm in the Russian fuel market. Wholesale prices are slowly rising. At gas stations, there was a sharp price increase at the very end of December and in January, primarily linked to an increase in fiscal burden at the start of the year rather than a balance of supply and demand for gasoline and diesel.
If a negative damper is added to this, prices on the exchange may rise contrary to all traditions in February, thereby pulling retail prices up.
For oil producers, the potential lifting of the gasoline export ban could serve as an incentive. A fair deal would allow them to profit from exports without instigating another rally in the fuel market while the state receives damper payments.
"The proposed solution reflects the consolidated position of the Ministry of Energy and oil companies presented at the meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak last week," said Yuri Stankevich, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Energy in an interview with "RG."
The lifting of the export ban would signal sufficient oil refining volumes and stockpiling for a rainy day. Additional revenues from exports are necessary for the industry to maintain profitability given the 'limping' damper mechanism, and for the government to reduce the budget deficit, believes Stankevich.
Retail gasoline prices will be limited by inflation.According to Sergey Frolov, managing partner at NEFT Research, the negative damper for December will be one of the reasons for the early lifting of gasoline export restrictions if the government proceeds with this. Additionally, this would be an attempt to boost demand and, as a result, utilize oil refining capacities more effectively. However, the decision appears risky since the gasoline market balance does not have a significant buffer. Nevertheless, a short-term lifting of export restrictions during a period of low demand generally does not pose significant risks for the market, the expert believes.
Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the "Reliable Partner" Association and member of the Expert Council for the "Gas Stations of Russia" competition, Dmitry Gusev, sees risks in lifting the export ban as independent gas stations (more than half of all gas stations in Russia) have failed to stockpile fuel for the peak season despite multiple government calls. This is evidenced by the low demand for gasoline in January. Further, as soon as exports are allowed, wholesale prices are likely to rise, which is a definite disadvantage for creating summer stock.
From the perspective of Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market, the regulator may feel justified in lifting the gasoline export ban, arguing that oil producers cannot be kept "on dry rations" for too long. There is a rational kernel in this: at the end of last year, gasoline prices were consistently declining, and oil producers likely wish to recover lost profits. This was evident at the beginning of the year, when retail gasoline prices had already reached a 1.2% increase by January 12.
However, while lifting the ban may improve the profitability of oil refineries (NPPs) by allowing them to sell additional export volumes at higher prices, it will undoubtedly lead to an increase in gasoline stock market quotations, which may filter through to retail prices. Gusev believes there will be no impact as retail prices will continue to be limited by inflation, which gasoline has already outpaced since the year's outset.
Frolov believes that prices at gas stations will continue to rise under any conditions — the effects of another increase in fiscal burden (excise duty and VAT hikes) have not yet been fully realized.
Tereshkin, however, has a different view, suggesting that lifting the export ban will be complemented by a gentlemen's agreement obligating oil producers to restrain price increases. The duration of the export permission will depend on adherence to this condition.
Stankevich is confident that the lifting of the export ban will not affect retail prices within the country. Should any signs of gasoline or diesel shortages arise, a new ban will be imposed with lightning speed.
The government's planned decision is yet another response to numerous questions regarding state involvement in regulating the fuel industry. Management is conducted in a mode of manual situational response, notes Stankevich.
Gusev believes that Russia needs to stimulate the creation of additional oil refining capacities to ensure sufficient gasoline supply for both the domestic market and exports. However, until there is a stable increase in domestic fuel consumption, this is unlikely to be achieved. The growth of freight volumes across the country is hindered, and sales of new vehicles are not increasing. In this situation, the government has no choice but to regulate supply and demand through exports.
Source: RG.RU
