Key Economic Events and Corporate Reports July 26, 2026: Fed, Big Tech, Oil

Overview of Economic Events and Corporate Reporting for 26 July 2026: Markets Closed, but the Week’s Agenda is Already Set — Federal Reserve Decision, Bank of Japan Meeting, Quarterly Results from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Shell, and Rio Tinto, as well as the Reaction of the Moscow Exchange Index to the Decline in the Key Rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation

Sunday, 26 July 2026, marks a day without trading and macroeconomic statistics. Global markets are closed, the economic calendar is empty, and Russia celebrates Navy Day. However, for investors, this is not a pause, but a window for preparation: one of the busiest weeks of the year lies ahead. Economic events and corporate reports from 27–31 July include the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, the Bank of Japan meeting, the publication of the US GDP for the second quarter and the PCE deflator, as well as quarterly results from companies that account for a significant portion of the S&P 500 capitalization. The backdrop remains the ongoing conflict around Iran, keeping Brent oil prices near three-digit figures.

Trading Week Wrap-Up on Global Markets

The week ended mixed and overall negatively. On Friday, 24 July, the S&P 500 index gained a symbolic 0.05% to close at 7411.98 points, the Dow Jones rose by 0.46% to 51,947.25, while the Nasdaq Composite dipped by 0.64% to 24,975.82. Over the course of five sessions, all three American indices ended up in the red, with the Nasdaq losing nearly 2%.

• The main shock of the week was the sell-off on Thursday, when the “magnificent seven” lost a total of approximately $800 billion in market capitalization.
• Alphabet fell by about 7%, and Tesla dropped by 14%: both companies reported a negative free cash flow for the quarter due to a sharp increase in AI infrastructure investments.
• Intel lost nearly 8% on Friday, despite stronger-than-expected earnings — the market penalizes expenses rather than revenue.
• Apple, on the contrary, gained about 3.5%, supporting the Dow, after setting historical highs earlier in July.

Although the earnings season is performing strongly: of the first 95 companies reporting from the S&P 500, around 88% exceeded earnings forecasts. The disparity between robust figures and a weak market response serves as a key signal for investors: the market is re-evaluating not profit, but capital expenditures.

Oil, Gas, and Gold: Geopolitical Premium in Prices

Commodity markets remain the primary channel for transmitting geopolitical risk into the global economy. On Friday, Brent fell by approximately 4%, closing around $97 per barrel — this marks the largest daily decline since late June, but for the week, prices rose by over 12%.

1. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted, with part of the export flows from the Persian Gulf redirected.
2. Houthi attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea have opened a second front of logistical risks and raised freight rates.
3. Gold remains near historical highs (around $4,100 per ounce), reflecting sustained demand for safe-haven assets.
4. The refining margins for diesel and jet fuel in Europe remain abnormally high amidst low inventories.

Central Banks: Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Central Bank of Russia

The week of 27–31 July is a monetary policy week.

• The US Federal Reserve will hold a meeting on 28-29 July. The interest rate is currently in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, and new forecasts (dot plot) will not be published. Futures market estimates a 64% probability of keeping the rate unchanged and a 35% chance of a 25 bps increase. The main market event will be the press conference by Governor Kevin Warsh.
• The Bank of Japan meets on 30-31 July and publishes its quarterly Outlook Report. Following the rate hike in June, the current rate stands at 1.0%; consensus expectations foresee a pause, but comments on inflation could sharply shift the yen's trajectory.
• The Central Bank of Russia reduced the key rate by 25 bps to 14.00% per annum on 24 July. This marks the tenth consecutive decrease and the fifth in 2026. The regulator issued a neutral signal, noting rising inflation expectations and accelerating prices for fuel and food products amid stable inflation in the range of 4-5% year-over-year.

Corporate Reports of the Week: USA and the S&P 500 Index

The earnings calendar for American public companies in the upcoming week is the busiest of the quarter:

• Wednesday, 29 July: Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Qualcomm, Starbucks, Public Storage, Humana, Boston Scientific, Biogen, Cognizant.
• Thursday, 30 July: Amazon, Apple, Mastercard, Valero Energy, Regeneron, Exelon, Xcel Energy.
• Throughout the week: Procter & Gamble, General Dynamics, L3Harris, Johnson Controls, Amphenol, Garmin, Old Dominion Freight Line, Visa, Coca-Cola, PayPal.

The key issue for investors is not revenue, but the capital expenditures of hyperscalers and the dynamics of the cloud segments Azure and AWS.

Europe: Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE 100, and Earnings Energy Twist

European earnings for the second quarter show an aggregate profit increase of around 17%, but nearly all of this growth has been driven by the energy sector. TotalEnergies reported an adjusted net profit of around $6 billion (+67% y/y), Repsol reported €1.84 billion, compared to €598 million the year prior. For industries, airlines, and the consumer sector, the increases in oil prices translate to higher costs.

This week, earnings reports are due from AstraZeneca and Vodafone (27 July), Barclays, GSK, Unilever (28 July), Airbus, Rio Tinto, Standard Chartered, Reckitt, Glencore (29 July), Shell, Lloyds, Rolls-Royce, BAE Systems, Anglo American, British American Tobacco, London Stock Exchange Group (30 July), NatWest, IAG, ITV, Taylor Wimpey (31 July). The composite PMI for Germany in July returned to growth territory (51.2), which slightly improves the overall picture for the Eurozone.

Asia: Nikkei 225, Yen, and Chinese Demand

The Japanese market remains near record levels, and a weak yen continues to support exporters: some investment houses have revised their USD/JPY forecasts towards further weakening of the Japanese currency. For Asian markets, key determinants will be the Bank of Japan's decision, industrial production data, inflation in Tokyo, and the reaction of Chinese metallurgists and oil refiners to rising raw material costs.

Russia: Moscow Exchange Index after Rate Reduction

The Russian stock market recorded its first weekly rise in nearly twenty weeks. The Moscow Exchange Index, which dropped below 2100 points before the Central Bank meeting, recovered losses following the rate decision. On Friday, leaders included “Rusagro” (+35.7% on corporate news), Moscow Exchange (+5.7%), MMK (+4.9%), “En+ Group” (+4.2%), as well as “PhosAgro”, “Yandex”, and NLMK.

Corporate event calendar on MOEX:

• 27 July — “Norilsk Nickel”: production results for the first half of 2026.
• 28 July — TGK-1 and “All Instruments”: operational results for the first half of the year.
• 29 July — “Acron”: annual shareholder meeting regarding dividends (235 rubles per share).

From what has been published: net profit of “Novatek” under IFRS for the half-year decreased to 218.6 billion rubles. A separate factor is the extension of the OFAC license for negotiations concerning the sale of “Lukoil's” international assets until 22 August 2026.

Weekly Macroeconomic Statistics

1. US GDP for the second quarter (preliminary estimate) — Thursday.
2. Core PCE Deflator for June — a key inflation benchmark for the Federal Reserve.
3. Personal income and spending data from Americans, initial jobless claims.
4. Consumer confidence indices in the US and business sentiment indicators in the Eurozone.
5. Inflation in Tokyo and industrial production figures for Japan.

Day’s Summary: Key Takeaways for Investors

1. Capital expenditures are more important than revenue. The reaction to Alphabet and Tesla's reports showed that the market is willing to penalize aggressive investments in AI even with strong operational results. Reports from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple will test whether these investments translate into growth in cloud revenue.
2. Double risk from oil. Brent near $100 serves as both support for oil and gas exporters (including the Russian market) and an inflationary tax on industry, transport, and consumers. Assess which side of this balance your portfolio is on.
3. Federal Reserve's decision without a dot plot. The lack of new forecasts increases the weight of the statement and press conference wording. The scenario of a rate hike, which the market estimates at about one-third, is underrated in the pricing of risk assets.
4. New tariffs from the US. The recently implemented duties of 10–12.5% on key trading partners will gradually impact the margins of importers and inflation statistics in the fall.
5. The Russian market: the easing cycle continues. The reduction of the key rate to 14% lowers funding costs and increases the attractiveness of stocks relative to deposits, but the neutral signal from the Central Bank and rising inflation expectations warrant caution in long-term OFZs.
6. Weekend homework. Check diversification across regions and sectors, the proportion of defensive assets, and stop-loss levels before the markets open on Monday — the upcoming week promises increased volatility.