To compensate for fuel import costs that are not covered by the damper, oil companies may further increase gasoline and diesel prices at their filling stations by 2.1 rubles per litre. As reported by “Kommersant”, this option for stimulating foreign supplies is being considered by the government. An alternative would involve a smaller price increase and the inclusion of logistics costs within the framework of the import damper, but this option is not supported by the Ministry of Finance.
Oil companies may additionally raise gasoline and diesel prices at filling stations to offset losses related to the supply of imported petroleum products. The corresponding proposal from the Ministry of Energy was outlined in an appeal to Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, which was reviewed by “Kommersant”. A source from “Kommersant” specified that the document, signed by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, was sent in October. The appeal states that the sale of imported gasoline and diesel at current prices at the filling stations of vertically integrated oil companies (VIOC) incurs losses of 13–18 rubles per litre, even considering the import damper. In particular, subsidies are insufficient due to the premium on imported fuel compared to world prices due to sanctions, as well as transportation costs within Russia.
To stimulate foreign fuel supplies, the Ministry of Energy proposed two options. The first involves including the cost of rail transportation of fuel from the Northwest Federal District to the central part of Russia in the formula for the import damper—approximately 4–5 thousand rubles per tonne. In this case, additional budget payments could reach up to 2 billion rubles per month. Furthermore, oil companies that have imported fuel could increase retail prices for the total volume of gasoline and diesel by 1.6 rubles per litre. According to estimates from the Ministry of Energy, under this scenario, by the end of the year, VIOC gasoline prices at filling stations could increase by 10.2% or 6.6 rubles, while summer diesel could rise by 10%, or 7.7 rubles per litre.Oil companies may additionally raise gasoline and diesel prices at filling stations to offset losses related to the supply of imported petroleum products. The corresponding proposal from the Ministry of Energy was outlined in an appeal to Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, which was reviewed by “Kommersant”. A source from “Kommersant” specified that the document, signed by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, was sent in October. The appeal states that the sale of imported gasoline and diesel at current prices at the filling stations of vertically integrated oil companies (VIOC) incurs losses of 13–18 rubles per litre, even considering the import damper. In particular, subsidies are insufficient due to the premium on imported fuel compared to world prices due to sanctions, as well as transportation costs within Russia.
The second option is to raise prices by 2.1 rubles per litre without changing the formula of the mechanism, implying that the cost of gasoline at VIOC filling stations could increase by 11%, or 7.1 rubles, and summer diesel by 10.7%, or 8.2 rubles per litre by the end of the year. In this scenario, the price gap between gasoline and summer diesel at VIOC and independent operators could narrow to 8–18 rubles per litre, compared to the current 13–18 rubles per litre depending on the region. This allows oil companies to create a source for compensating expenses related to fuel imports in 2026 amid attacks on refineries.
The Ministry of Finance and the government, as indicated in the appeal, support the second option. “Kommersant” has sent inquiries to the office of the Deputy Prime Minister and various ministries.
As reported in October by Alexander Novak, Russia will continue to import gasoline at least until the end of 2026 to ensure the domestic market and replenish reserves. A source from “Kommersant” estimated the volume of maritime and rail imports of gasoline into Russia from October to December 2026 at 620 thousand tonnes per month, with foreign supplies accounting for 16–18% of the total supply volume (see “Kommersant” dated October 16). According to the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS), the cost of the imported alternative for AI-92 gasoline rose by 4% in September compared to August, reaching 108 thousand rubles per tonne, while the imported counterpart for diesel increased by 9%, to 121.8 thousand rubles per tonne. The average wholesale prices for AI-92 and Euro-5 class diesel in the domestic market for September were 70.17 thousand rubles and 67.73 thousand rubles per tonne, respectively.
According to a source from “Kommersant” within the industry, the price increase of 2.1 rubles per litre is the most likely scenario. However, they add that due to the volatility of global prices, import costs are constantly changing, and thus the proposed measure may not resolve the issue of supply profitability.
A contact at “Kommersant” suggests that after the increase in VAT and excise duties from 2027, oil companies may raise the issue of price indexing again. The added 2.1 rubles per litre would allow Russian refineries to generate about 12 billion rubles in additional revenue monthly, calculated another source from “Kommersant”. They stated that the risk lies in exchange prices approaching the threshold that would nullify the damper. Currently, however, the government is considering a moratorium on nullifying damper payments (see “Kommersant” dated October 12).
Increasing prices through consumers is preferable for authorities compared to adjusting the damper, as it helps avoid additional budget expenses, notes tax expert Boris Lutset. He continues that it is difficult to determine a specific level of increase in advance, as much will depend primarily on the stable operation of refineries. In the budget project materials, payments under the import damper for 2027 are projected at around 6.7 billion rubles, points out the expert. In his opinion, maintaining the parameters of the damper mechanism alongside an unfavorable market situation could lead to a more significant rise in prices, especially for gasoline. Open Oil Market Director Sergey Tereshkin notes that under current high global prices, no indirect measures to support imports can realign external and internal prices: “It is more effective to simply weather the current storm in the global market and then begin adjusting the mechanisms for stimulating imports.” Managing Partner of NEFT Research Sergey Frolov adds that for independent filling stations, the decision offers a temporary advantage in the form of a greater volume of imported resources. However, he warns that if VIOCs simultaneously raise wholesale prices, independent networks will need to increase prices even further, which could drive away customers and accelerate market consolidation.
Source: Kommersant
